Market Strategist
12
years of experience
Christian Floro is a Market Strategist for the Principal Asset Management Global Insights team. He is responsible for helping develop the firm’s Macro House View. Christian joined the firm in 2024. Prior to his current role, Christian served as a portfolio strategist at Martello Re. Prior to that he was a macro strategist at Barings. He received his undergraduate degree from Fordham University. Christian has earned the right to use the Chartered Financial Analyst and Chartered Market Technician designations, and is a member of the CFA Institute and the CMT Association.
The labor market puzzle: Why the Fed may be flying blind
6 min
As the Federal Reserve watches labor market data closely, recent trends suggest that traditional indicators like the Sahm Rule may no longer tell the full story. What does this…
By 
Christian Floro, CFA
Principal Well-Being Index: Firms looking through the sticker shock
2 min
Persistent cost pressures are pushing firms toward technology investment and productivity gains.
By 
Seema Shah, and Christian Floro, CFA
Equity markets: Nearing a peak or more room to run?
2 min
Are U.S. equities nearing a peak? With valuations stretched and the Fed's next move uncertain, history offers valuable lessons.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA, and Han Peng
Risks of labor supply restraints and implications for the Fed
Tighter immigration distorts labor signals, complicating Fed policy amid mixed economic data.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA, Magdalena Ocampo, and Seema Shah
China: Is this the “whatever it takes” moment?
2 min
China's recent stimulus measures, including monetary easing and a massive fiscal pledge, have sparked a sharp rally in equities, particularly in real estate and consumer…
By 
Seema Shah, and Christian Floro, CFA
May FOMC meeting: Waiting for more clarity
2 min
As the window for potential cuts shifts later into 2025, the Fed’s balancing act is becoming increasingly complex.
By 
Seema Shah, and Christian Floro, CFA
September CPI report: Keeping the Fed on track for cuts
2 min
September CPI cooled to 3.0% as shelter costs eased, but energy prices drove headline gains.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA, and Magdalena Ocampo
November CPI report: Inflation risks keep the Fed on edge
2 min
November CPI data points to a Fed rate cut at their December meeting, but persistent inflation pressures, especially in core services, are keeping policymakers cautious. With…
By 
Seema Shah, and Christian Floro, CFA
May jobs report: Not yet coming apart at the seams
2 min
Payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, and the labor market is not yet showing signs of a significant decline.
By 
Seema Shah, Christian Floro, CFA, and Magdalena Ocampo
A blockbuster, but skewed, tax refund season
2 min
Tax refunds provide a brief consumer lift as affordability strains widen across households.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA
February CPI report: Not yet in the clear
2 min
February CPI cooled, easing stagflation fears—but policy risks and tariffs mean we’re not in the clear yet.
By 
Seema Shah, and Christian Floro, CFA
U.S. Tariffs – Liberation Day 2.0, August 1
4 min
New U.S. tariffs target surplus nations; rates up to 15%+ as trade tensions enter new phase.
By 
Seema Shah, and Christian Floro, CFA
September CPI report: Underlying stubbornness not enough to alter the Fed’s course
Despite the September CPI report revealing slightly higher than anticipated inflation data, it’s likely not enough to alter the Fed’s rate trajectory.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA
The Fed’s dilemma: Waiting for hard data amid political pressure
2 min
The Fed faces delays, pressure, and rising risks—what it means for rates, volatility, and the dollar.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA
October FOMC meeting: Navigating the fog
2 min
October’s rate cut shows the Fed’s caution as labor signals soften and economic data remains limited.
By 
Magdalena Ocampo, and Christian Floro, CFA
December ECB meeting: Moving to a dovish tilt
2 min
The European Central Bank’s decision to cut policy rates for the fourth time this cycle highlights its growing confidence in the inflation outlook, while acknowledging…
By 
Seema Shah, and Christian Floro, CFA
May CPI report: Still bracing for impact
2 min
Inflation stayed soft in May, but tariff-related pressures may still be looming on the horizon.
By 
Seema Shah, Christian Floro, CFA, and Magdalena Ocampo
February ECB meeting: An agile approach to policy
2 min
ECB holds rates steady as growth stays resilient and inflation remains on track toward target.
By 
Seema Shah, and Christian Floro, CFA
Confronting the risk of a policy-driven recession
9 min
Policy shifts are rattling markets—is the U.S. heading for recession? We assess the risks and outlook.
By 
Seema Shah, and Christian Floro, CFA
July ECB meeting: A victory lap on inflation
2 min
The European Central Bank paused its rate cutting cycle for the first time in more than a year, as the inflationary shock of the past few years is now largely behind them.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA
Earnings season: Starting from a place of resilience
2 min
Although there is risk of earnings slowing, corporates nevertheless appear well positioned to weather the storm, and should play an essential role in maintaining economic…
By 
Christian Floro, CFA
U.S.-China trade war 90-day truce
5 min
U.S.-China tariff truce eases recession risk and lifts markets—but uncertainty still lingers.
By 
Seema Shah, and Christian Floro, CFA
October ECB meeting: Steady rates, in a “good place”
2 min
ECB policymakers opted to keep policy rates steady and emphasized how growing economic acticity leaves them a very good place.
By 
Magdalena Ocampo, and Christian Floro, CFA
Trump’s first 100 days: Five policies shaping markets in 2025
5 min
President Trump’s ambitious policy agenda could have far-reaching implications for markets. From trade tensions to fiscal policy debates, his ability to deliver on promises in…
By 
Christian Floro, CFA, and Seema Shah
Who will benefit from deregulation?
6 min
Deregulation gains traction, creating sector-specific opportunities in a shifting policy landscape.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA, and Kiara Cao
January CPI report: Unusually cooler than normal
2 min
January CPI cools to 2.4%, easing market fears and keeping Fed rate cuts on hold for now near term.
By 
Seema Shah, Christian Floro, CFA, and Magdalena Ocampo
Is there hope for the market?
5 min
Earnings growth will be key to extending the market rally, but policy and macro risks remain in focus.
By 
Han Peng, and Christian Floro, CFA
July CPI report: Tariffs coming in slow but steady
2 min
July CPI steady at 2.7% as core inflation rises; tariff impacts modest but likely to build ahead.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA, and Magdalena Ocampo
April CPI report: Good news, but old news
2 min
April CPI cools to 2.3%, but shifting trade policy clouds the inflation outlook ahead
By 
Christian Floro, CFA, and Seema Shah
Dissecting the OBBBA: A front-loaded fiscal boost
7 min
A front-loaded fiscal boost with fleeting benefits: unpacking the OBBBA’s economic and market impact.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA
January ECB meeting: From inflation to growth risks
2 min
At its January meeting the ECB cuts rates again amid weak growth; further easing is likely as inflation risks fade and U.S. tariffs loom.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA
What’s in store for financial markets in the second half of the year?
2 min
Navigating market volatility has been challenging this year; investors should focus on U.S. fundamentals.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA, and Magdalena Ocampo
The Trump administration’s affordability plan
12 min
Affordability is now a key policy focus, but most proposals face hurdles and limited impact.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA
Market volatility: Could earnings growth revive the rally?
2 min
After a strong rally, markets have turned volatile. Can earnings growth sustain momentum amid rising risks?
By 
Christian Floro, CFA
Private credit: A structural source of lending stability and growth
Private credit’s resilience helps businesses access funding when banks and markets pull back.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA
A long-term approach to election volatility
2 min
Don’t let election fright trick you—equities have almost always risen no matter who’s president.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA
Trade truce: What it means for the outlook
2 min
Tariff truce offers near-term relief, but uncertainty around trade policy still clouds the outlook.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA
Examining the OBBBA’s short-term stimulus
2 min
A look at how the OBBBA’s short-term stimulus may impact consumers, corporates, and markets.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA
The opening salvo in Trump trade war two
9 min
Trump’s new tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China are reigniting trade tensions, raising inflation risks and market volatility. What’s next for investors?
By 
Christian Floro, CFA, and Seema Shah
A market guide to deregulation
2 min
Deregulation could counter policy uncertainty as the U.S. shifts to a pro-growth path.
By 
Seema Shah, Christian Floro, CFA, and Magdalena Ocampo
February CPI report: Calm before the storm
2 min
February CPI met expectations, but surging oil prices shift the market’s inflation focus ahead.
By 
Seema Shah, Christian Floro, CFA, and Magdalena Ocampo
The macro fallout from ‘Liberation Day’
2 min
Tariffs risk reigniting stagflation fears, slashing U.S. growth and lifting inflation back toward 4%.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA
Weak jobs report cements September rate cut
2 min
August jobs miss expectations, boosting odds of a September Fed rate cut amid slowing labor demand.
By 
Magdalena Ocampo, and Christian Floro, CFA
October CPI report: Neither too hot nor too cold
2 min
The October CPI report hit expectations, calming market nerves around inflation as we near the next FOMC meeting. With a 25bps Fed cut still in play, all eyes are on December.
By 
Seema Shah, and Christian Floro, CFA
Principal Well-Being Index: Small businesses are holding onto their staff
2 min
Despite low confidence, small firms plan to retain staff—easing fears of rising unemployment.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA, and Seema Shah
September jobs report: Finally, some data
2 min
Strong September jobs data eases labor market fears, but policy uncertainty still looms large.
By 
Seema Shah, Christian Floro, CFA, and Magdalena Ocampo
Trump 2.0: Impact of tariffs on growth and inflation
2 min
President Trump kicked off his second term by introducing tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, marking a potential shock to growth prospects in each region.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA
June jobs report: Tighter immigration policy complicating the outlook
2 min
June payrolls showed a decent payroll gain; the Fed remains on course for a late 2025 rate cut.
By 
Seema Shah, Christian Floro, CFA, and Magdalena Ocampo
By 
Seema Shah, and Christian Floro, CFA
Oil markets: Bracing for a surplus
6 min
Oil markets face oversupply risks as fundamentals outweigh geopolitics—what it means for investors.
By 
Eric Swanson, CFA , and Christian Floro, CFA
Trump’s policy agenda: Where the rubber meets the road
8 min
Trump’s policies are aimed at shaking up the U.S. economy and redefining global trade. However, challenges lie ahead, as Republican divisions may stall fiscal initiatives, and…
By 
Christian Floro, CFA
Winners and losers from the trade war: An equities view
9 min
Explore how rising U.S. tariffs are driving sector divergence across the equity market.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA, Emily Foshag, CFA, Lauren Choi, Jared Meggison, CFA, and Ryan Jordan
Principal Well-Being Index: AI’s effect on staffing
2 min
AI adoption isn’t shrinking jobs—survey finds businesses see growth, not cuts, from new tech.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA
January jobs reports: Weak headline jobs growth masks underlying resilience
2 min
January’s jobs report fell short of expectations, with payrolls rising by 143,000, but the details tell a different story.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA
U.S. Tariffs: The end of the 90-day reprieve...
8 min
Tariff clock ticks: U.S. delays deadline, pushes partners to deal or face sharp sectoral hikes.
By 
Seema Shah, and Christian Floro, CFA
March CPI report: Risks delayed, not removed
3 min
March's soft inflation report should provide some reassurance to markets, which were rocked in the past week with trade policy-related volatility.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA, and Seema Shah
Oversupply risks rise as oil demand softens
2 min
Oil markets face downside pressure as supply builds and demand momentum continues to soften.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA
Risk assets: Earnings and deregulatory tailwinds are creating a strong backdrop
2 min
Earnings growth and the potential for deregulation are setting the stage for a favorable environment for risk assets.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA
April ECB meeting: Agility in the face of trade uncertainty
2 min
The ECB cut its policy rates at its April meeting for the seventh time in this cycle, marking its sixth straight cut.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA
October and November jobs report: Noisy, not recessionary
4 min
Labor data looks weak, but distortions mask a resilient job market and cooling—not collapse.
By 
Seema Shah, Christian Floro, CFA, and Magdalena Ocampo
January CPI report: Too hot to dismiss
2 min
January's CPI report was a wake-up call for markets and the Fed, with inflation running hotter than expected.
By 
Seema Shah, and Christian Floro, CFA
June CPI report: Tariff impact materializing
Inflation stays soft despite tariffs, giving the Fed space to delay rate cuts for now.
By 
Seema Shah, Christian Floro, CFA, and Magdalena Ocampo
March ECB meeting: Well-positioned to navigate the uncertainty
2 min
The ECB held rates steady again, and is well positioned to navigate any upcoming uncertainty
By 
Christian Floro, CFA
U.S. Real Estate Office: Is the worst behind us?
5 min
After years of distress, the U.S. office real estate sector may finally be turning a corner.
By 
Art Jones, Madhan Rengarajan, CFA , and Christian Floro, CFA
September FOMC meeting: Fed is taking the no-risk free path to cuts
2 min
Fed cuts rates 25 bps, signals dovish tilt as labor market softens and uncertainty lingers.
By 
Seema Shah, and Christian Floro, CFA
The national debt: What it means for investors
2 min
The U.S. national debt is nearing $36 trillion, and interest payments could hit $1.71 trillion by 2034. Mandatory spending continues to squeeze the discretionary budget,…
By 
Seema Shah, and Christian Floro, CFA
June ECB meeting: In a good place to assess the risks
2 min
The ECB cut rates for the seventh consecutive time at its June meeting, and is in a good position to face the uncertainties ahead.
By 
Seema Shah, Christian Floro, CFA, and Magdalena Ocampo
December ECB meeting: Still in “a good place,” with a focus on optionality
2 min
ECB holds rates in December; growth outlook brightens, but policy remains cautious amid rising uncertainty.
By 
Seema Shah, and Christian Floro, CFA
Trump’s impact on the labor market
2 min
The Trump Administration's crackdown on government efficiency and immigration is likely to have a muddying effect on the labor market, further complicating the Fed's job from…
By 
Christian Floro, CFA
Tariffs: the new status quo
2 min
Tariff delays offer hope for trade deals, but lasting uncertainty poses risks for global investors.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA
April jobs report: Solid momentum in play before the tariff hit
3 min
April jobs beat expectations, but trade and policy risks may test labor market resilience soon.
By 
Seema Shah, and Christian Floro, CFA
Higher yields signal fiscal considerations may be back in the spotlight
5 min
Fiscal risks, not rate cuts, are driving long-end yields higher across advanced economies.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA, and Marcela Rocha
Financials are leveraged for a soft-landing
6 min
Positive economic outlook and industry-specific green shoots are setting up the financial sector for a resurgence. With improving credit conditions, loan growth, net margins,…
By 
Mary Brown, CFA, Mark McGrew, CFA , Nedret Vidinli, CFA, Scott Leiberton, CFA, and Christian Floro, CFA
Who benefits in a trade war?
2 min
Tariffs persist post-truce, reshaping equity risks and sector dynamics amid trade policy uncertainty.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA
December jobs report: Conflicting dynamics
2 min
Labor market cools as job growth slows and revisions turn negative—but no signs of collapse yet.
By 
Seema Shah, Christian Floro, CFA, and Magdalena Ocampo
Is the U.S. equity market peaking?
5 min
A deep dive into what has historically ended bull markets—from aggressive Fed hikes to black swan events—and how today’s macro environment stacks up.
By 
Han Peng, and Christian Floro, CFA
Renewed threats to the Fed’s independence
6 min
Trump puts new pressures on Powell, reviving market fears over Fed independence and future policy direction.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA, and Seema Shah
Preserving central bank credibility: Addressing threats to the Fed’s independence
6 min
Political threats to Fed independence raise risks for U.S. credibility, markets, and the dollar.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA, and Seema Shah
China’s flow-driven equity rally may have further upside
2 min
Consumer-focused stimulus fuels renewed optimism in China’s equity markets.
By 
Han Peng, and Christian Floro, CFA
November jobs report: Not enough to alter the Fed’s course
2 min
The November jobs report showed a 227,000 gain in jobs. The absence of a large upside surprise snapback from October’s weather and strike weakened print reinforces the case for…
By 
Christian Floro, CFA
Unseen upside: The commercial rebound nobody called
5 min
Housing and CRE split in 2023—now the gap is narrowing, with CRE returns gaining momentum.
By 
Rich Hill, Art Jones, Seema Shah, and Christian Floro, CFA
Spillovers of the “K-shape” consumer to securitized debt markets
5 min
Diverging household finances are pressuring subprime credit and reshaping ABS performance.
By 
Christian Floro, CFA
Iran conflict triggers a major energy shock
8 min
Energy shock hits markets as Iran conflict disrupts oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
By 
Seema Shah, Christian Floro, CFA, and Magdalena Ocampo