Home Insights Macro views Tariffs: the new status quo
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The renewed delay to implement U.S. reciprocal tariffs until August 1 unlocked the potential of more trade deals materializing. However, this development is likely only in its early innings as a prolonged period of tariff uncertainty—that likely involves more exchanges between the U.S. and its trade partners—is still ahead. Tariff volatility continues to entrench itself as a permanent feature of the economic backdrop, and investors should not be complacent about these risks.

While the U.S. administration has decided to delay implementation of reciprocal tariffs until August 1, in a bid to accelerate talks, the U.S. has also begun sending letters to various countries, informing them of their tariff rates if a deal cannot be secured.

Together with the announcement of additional sectoral tariffs on copper and a promise that pharmaceutical tariffs are forthcoming, the administration's commitment to the use of punitive tariffs is evident and showcases trade policy’s new status quo.

While the extension of negotiations suggests that more trade deals could materialize, that is likely not the end of the story. Trade deals typically take up to three years to finalize, making deadline extensions and renewed tensions still possible. Ongoing legal challenges also have the potential to limit the staying power of broad-based tariffs. Finally, the administration’s liberal use of tariffs as a negotiating tool to extract non-economic concessions means that tariff noise will likely remain a permanent feature.

A prolonged period of tariff uncertainty, with potentially many exchanges between the U.S. and its trade partners is likely. Our own baseline scenario sees trade barriers remaining higher for the foreseeable future, with tariffs likely to settle in the mid- to high-teens, suggesting potential for economic scarring. Investors should not be complacent about these risks and portfolio diversification across geographies and sectors remains critical.

For a deeper dive into the impacts tariffs are likely to have on the economy, markets and portfolios, read U.S. Tariffs: The end of the 90-day reprieve.

Macro views
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