Real Capital Analytics’ newest data shows U.S. commercial real estate transaction volumes increasing, with headline volumes rising +15% YoY to $42bn. Equally notable, April 2026 was revised meaningfully higher, narrowing that month’s YoY decline to -14%, from -33% previously. As a result, 2Q26-to-date volumes now stand at +0.8% YoY, and YTD volumes are tracking ~20% ahead of the same period last year.
At the sector level, office was the only property type to decline MoM in May (-41%). Data centers jumped +3,286% MoM, reflecting the lumpy nature of the sector, though volumes totaled just ~$508mn, and overall volumes were still up +13.8% excluding data centers. Elsewhere, Senior housing (+49%), Industrial (+38%), Hotel (+37%), Apartment (+34%), and Retail (+29%) were all firmly positive.
Additionally, portfolio and entity-level deals (+205%) were the driver of U.S. commercial real estate liquidity in May. Headline volume rose YoY, but ex-megadeals, activity would have been down. The -13% drop in individual asset sales, now the second consecutive monthly decline, is a cautious signal worth monitoring.
Although the April revision was in line with our expectations, the May YoY increase may be viewed as a pleasant surprise given the uncertain geopolitical and macroeconomic backdrop. Notably, the increase aligns with sentiment indicators, suggesting that investors have become more deliberate in their decision-making but have not lost conviction. That said, the gain was at least partially flattered by the data it’s compared against—May 2025 volumes were just $36.5bn.
The comparison base becomes much more challenging in June, when volumes reached $45.3bn last year. This creates a plausible path for 2Q26 to print negative versus 2Q25, which would break a streak of 8 consecutive quarters of rising YoY volumes. Looking further out, monthly volumes averaged $56.3bn in 2H25, setting an even higher bar for the back half of this year.
Bottom line
The latest data reinforces the view that the U.S. private real estate market continues to stabilize, with underlying transaction activity trending higher than initially reported. While near-term comparisons may introduce volatility in the headline growth rate, and ideally there would be greater strength in individual transactions that are the lifeblood of the market, the broader trajectory remains consistent with a market progressing through the early stages of recovery rather than one that’s breaking down.
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of Principal. Past Performance does not guarantee future return. Potential investors should be aware of the risks inherent to owning and investing in real estate, including value fluctuations, capital market pricing volatility, liquidity risks, leverage, credit risk, occupancy risk and legal risk. All these risks can lead to a decline in the value of the real estate, a decline in the income produced by the real estate and declines in the value or total loss in value of securities derived from investments in real estate. Commercial real estate (CRE) investments carry several inherent risks, including those related to the economy, interest rates, and tenant behavior. These risks can impact property values, rental income, and overall investment returns.
Views and opinions expressed are accurate as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This material may contain ‘forward-looking’ information that is not purely historical in nature and may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.
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