page assignment hero

Global Asset Allocation Viewpoints

Our quarterly investment outlook highlights the themes and investment implications for the period ahead.

4Q 2023

The last mile

The inflation shock has dissipated significantly, mainly due to the renormalization of supply chains, but has also been helped along by higher policy rates. Inflation remains above central bank targets. However, as a deep economic downturn would likely be required to hit the bullseye, policymakers presumably believe the growth-inflation trade-off is not worth the extra mile of tightening. As such, policy rates are probably close to their peak.
That said, central bankers must remain alert to bubbling price pressures. As long as growth stays above trend, there will be a risk of inflation resurgence. So, while rate hikes are largely complete, rate cuts are not imminent. Policy loosening will only be initiated once economic growth has slowed—hopefully to just below trend, but likely into negative territory.

Quick takes on capital markets

Short, timely takes on top-of-mind topics for investors.

Explore our latest insights

Learn firsthand from our experts

Mark your calendar.

Join our conversations with specialized experts and industry thought leaders—providing unique perspectives on macro events, trending themes, emerging investment strategies, and more.