Home Insights Macro views Impact of federal employment cuts on the labor market
Arial view of a city skyline.

Policies from the Trump administration, which have called for a broad reduction in federal government workers and spending, could negatively impact the labor market, especially when accounting for contract and grant-funded workers. This is likely to push unemployment higher, though it probably won’t be felt until the latter part of the year, buying time for the Fed to assess incoming data before considering additional rate cuts.

The Trump administration’s sweeping overhaul of the federal workforce—through hiring freezes, buyouts, early retirements, and broad reductions in force—is starting to ripple through the broader labor market. More recently, cuts have extended to contracts and grants, signaling a wider drag ahead.

Direct federal employment accounts for less than 2% of total nonfarm payrolls, but the U.S. government indirectly employs approximately 7.5 million workers through contract or grant spending, roughly four private employees per federal employee. That puts over 6% of U.S. payrolls potentially at risk.

With a surge in reported job cuts in the government sector totaling nearly 300,000 through April, assuming the ratio of contract—and grant-related jobs to federal workers remains constant, it implies nearly 1.3 million jobs could be impacted. If these potential job losses materialize over the next 12 months, then the pullback in employment may imply a drag on payroll growth of about 108,000 per month.

While the near-term impact is muted by generous public sector severance packages and lingering strength in the labor market, the aggregate effect of these job losses could begin to weigh on headline numbers by late 2025. For the Federal Reserve, this affords them time and implies that they are likely to keep rates elevated through 3Q, awaiting clearer signs of labor market softening before considering additional rate cuts.

Macro views
Disclosure

Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and should not be relied upon to make an investment decision.

The information presented has been derived from sources believed to be accurate; however, we do not independently verify or guarantee its accuracy or validity. Any reference to a specific investment or security does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold such investment or security, and does not take account of any investor’s investment objectives or financial situation and should not be construed as specific investment advice, a recommendation, or be relied on in any way as a guarantee, promise, forecast or prediction of future events regarding an investment or the markets in general. The opinions and predictions expressed are subject to change without prior notice.

Principal Asset Management leads global asset management at Principal.®

For Public Distribution in the U.S. For Institutional, Professional, Qualified and/or Wholesale Investor Use only in other permitted jurisdictions as defined by local laws and regulations.

In Europe, this communication is directed exclusively at Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties and should not be relied upon by Retail Clients.

© 2025, Principal Financial Services, Inc. Principal Asset ManagementSM is a trade name of Principal Global Investors, LLC. Principal®, Principal Financial Group®, Principal Asset Management, and Principal and the logomark design are registered trademarks and service marks of Principal Financial Services, Inc., a Principal Financial Group company, in various countries around the world and may be used only with the permission of Principal Financial Services, Inc.

4543200

About the author