Home Insights Real estate CRE credit distress: More cycle than crisis
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While concerns around commercial real estate (CRE) credit are growing, the data suggests a market that is adjusting, not breaking down. Loan modifications have increased, but remain modest relative to total exposure, and the share of maturing CMBS loans being paid off remains close to long-term historical averages. Distress is still expected to rise, but as a lagging indicator, it reflects a cycle already well underway. With REITs recovering and private valuations stabilizing, the CRE market appears to be progressing through a typical reset rather than entering a new phase of systemic risk.

Recent headlines have reignited investor scrutiny of commercial real estate (CRE) credit markets, as questions grow around the pace and depth of potential distress. This follows a recent St. Louis Fed report that noted a 66% increase in CRE loan modifications over the past year. While that figure may raise eyebrows, the absolute value remains small: just $27.7 billion, or about 1.5% of the $1.83 trillion in CRE loans held by banks. This runs counter to the narrative of banks “kicking the can down the road.” In fact, the Fed notes that modifications as a share of outstanding loans remain historically subdued, though new FDIC reporting rules may complicate comparisons with past data.

Elsewhere, BofA Global Research reports that as of September 30, 72% of CMBS conduit loans originally maturing in 2025 have already done so – just below the historical average of 77%. While CMBS is only a slice of the broader CRE mortgage market, it provides transparency that may suggest healthier fundamentals than the headlines imply.

Although delinquency rates and distress are likely to rise, CRE debt distress is typically a lagging indicator. Historically, REITs hit bottom first, followed by private CRE valuations 12 to 18 months later, and delinquencies 12 to 24 months after that. This cycle seems no different. REITs are up roughly 35% from their 2023 lows, valuations are recovering, yet distress is still rising — a sign the market is working through its reset, not breaking down.

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