Real Capital Analytics’ newly published third-quarter CRE transaction volumes showed a sharp acceleration in activity, with headline volumes rising +89% year-over-year to $263.7 billion. While the magnitude of the increase was driven in part by several large portfolio- and entity-level transactions (which accounted for 54% of quarterly volume), the data nonetheless point to continued improvement in market liquidity and investor activity. Data centers were a clear standout, with transaction volume increasing 1,525% year-over-year to $34.5 billion, despite accounting for only 13% of total 3Q transaction volume; even excluding data centers, total transaction volume would still have increased +67%.
The month of September was also encouraging, as transaction volume increased 6% year-over-year, including a 2.8% increase in individual property sales and a 4.4% increase in portfolio sales. Entity-level transactions contributed another $1.6 billion, compared with none in September 2025. Importantly, portfolio and entity transactions accounted for only 21% of September volume, suggesting the improvement was more broad-based than the quarterly headline may imply. Investors should still interpret September cautiously, however, as many transactions likely entered the pipeline before the recent increase in interest rates.
Recent revisions have also become increasingly supportive of the commercial real estate market. August transaction volumes were revised meaningfully higher, to approximately $119 billion, up from the initially reported $107 billion. Individual property sales were still down year-over-year, but the decline was revised to -13.6% from -28% at initial release.
Year-to-date transaction volumes now stand 52% above 2025 levels. As in recent quarters, however, the composition of that growth remains important. Individual property sales are up a more modest 15% year-over-year, compared with a 206% increase in portfolio- and entity-level transactions. While higher interest rates could create headwinds for individual asset sales in coming months, larger portfolio- and entity-level transactions may remain a source of upside as well-capitalized buyers look to take advantage of market dislocations and selective acquisition opportunities. For more analysis, see recent reports: Commercial real estate under higher inflation and interest rates and What a 5% 10-year Treasury means for commercial real estate.
Bottom line
Transaction activity continued to improve in 3Q26, but the 89% headline growth rate likely overstates the breadth of the recovery. The more encouraging signal is that individual asset sales continued to move higher in September 2026, while recent revisions suggest that underlying liquidity was stronger than initially reported. While higher interest rates may create near-term uncertainty, the broader direction of travel remains constructive, with transaction activity continuing to recover from cyclical lows.
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of Principal. Past Performance does not guarantee future return. Potential investors should be aware of the risks inherent to owning and investing in real estate, including value fluctuations, capital market pricing volatility, liquidity risks, leverage, credit risk, occupancy risk and legal risk. All these risks can lead to a decline in the value of the real estate, a decline in the income produced by the real estate and declines in the value or total loss in value of securities derived from investments in real estate. Commercial real estate (CRE) investments carry several inherent risks, including those related to the economy, interest rates, and tenant behavior. These risks can impact property values, rental income, and overall investment returns.
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