Home Insights Real estate The winners and losers of the bifurcated housing market
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The ramifications of normalization in the U.S. housing market to pre-pandemic levels, at least in some regions, are substantial to investors. Though elevated interest rates, dampened affordability, and policy uncertainty remain concerns, there are pockets of investment opportunities, particularly in the commercial real estate (CRE) space, where income returns have outweighed capital returns. This dynamic is likely to continue even amid slowing home price appreciation in the period ahead.

As the run-up in post-pandemic home prices slows, bifurcations in U.S. real estate present both risks and opportunities for investors.

Homes in the post-pandemic boom areas of the West Coast, Mountain West, Florida, and even Texas are finally seeing inventory levels surpass 2019 levels. A shortage of inventory previously fueled prices in some regions. However, as for-sale inventory flips to oversupply, it’s creating a difficult environment for sellers as demand remains lackluster given affordability challenges.

A counterintuitive dynamic that could exacerbate matters for U.S. housing, at least in some regions, is a decline in interest rates. Sellers could become more incentivized if improving affordability spurs greater demand. This could weigh on housing valuations as they normalize lower to a more balanced supply vs. demand environment.

A lower-rate environment, however, would favor commercial real estate (CRE) valuations. In fact, year-over-year changes in CRE total returns turned positive in 4Q24 and continued to accelerate higher in 1Q25 to +2.8%, given a combination of still solid fundamentals, improving lending conditions, and interest rates that have declined from peaks in late 2023.

Going forward, income is likely to remain the main driver of CRE total returns. This dynamic resembles the real estate market in the decades leading up to the 2008 crisis versus the somewhat financially engineered returns following that period post-GFC, which were driven by historically low interest rates.

For a deeper dive into the idiosyncratic and macro forces driving valuations and returns in residential and commercial real estate, read Unseen upside: The commercial rebound nobody called.

Real estate
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