Real Capital Analytics data released today showed U.S. commercial real estate transaction volumes accelerating meaningfully in early 2026. Most notably, 1Q26 transactions totaled $135.8bn, up 27% YoY, despite a volatile macro backdrop. March volumes rose 40% YoY, while January and February were revised sharply higher to +24% and +18%, respectively, evidence that activity was materially stronger than initially reported.
Breadth across property types reinforces our view that private real estate remains fully in recovery. Six of seven sectors posted higher YoY volumes in 1Q26, led by Senior Housing (+194%), Hotels (+64%), Office (+39%), and Industrial (+27%). Retail (+3%) and Apartments (+1%) also remained modestly positive. Data centers (-31%) were the lone decliner, reflecting the sector’s inherently lumpy, large ticket transaction profile rather than a deterioration in fundamentals.
While some deals were likely agreed prior to March’s geopolitical volatility, their completion is a clear positive and underscores improving market confidence. Transaction volumes tend to act as a barometer for sentiment: accelerating volumes signal growing demand and confidence, whereas slowing volumes would suggest increasing caution amongst investors.
Importantly, this strength aligns with both the preliminary 1Q26 NCREIF ODCE returns of +1.24%, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of positive performance, and with the U.S. listed REIT market returning to prior cycle highs, a classic leading indicator of market expansion.
Taken together, today’s transaction volume data reinforce our view that the U.S. private real estate cycle remains fully in recovery, supported by open and liquid debt markets. Historical cycle analysis suggests recoveries average roughly 2 years, followed by long, durable expansion phases lasting 12–13 years, driven not only by price appreciation but also by underappreciated income growth
Footnotes
For further analysis, read: The (CRE)covery
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of Principal. Past Performance does not guarantee future return. Potential investors should be aware of the risks inherent to owning and investing in real estate, including value fluctuations, capital market pricing volatility, liquidity risks, leverage, credit risk, occupancy risk and legal risk. All these risks can lead to a decline in the value of the real estate, a decline in the income produced by the real estate and declines in the value or total loss in value of securities derived from investments in real estate. Commercial real estate (CRE) investments carry several inherent risks, including those related to the economy, interest rates, and tenant behavior. These risks can impact property values, rental income, and overall investment returns.
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