Home Insights Real estate U.S. CRE deal volume up 7% in 2Q 2025
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MSCI Real Capital Analytics released transaction volumes for U.S. CRE in 2Q25 on Wednesday, July 23. They rose +7% in 2Q25 and were revised higher to +20% in 1Q25. As a result, volumes rose +13% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year.

By property type (1Q25 / 1H25):

  • Office: +51% / +16%
  • Industrial: +1% / +15%
  • Retail: +30% / +16.5%
  • Apartment: -14% / +5%
  • Hotel: -26% / -5%
  • Sr Housing: +43% / +79%

This undeniably exceeded most expectations post-Liberation Day, but the full impacts of tariffs may not have surfaced yet. Indeed, while transaction volumes rose +35% in April and +16% in May, they declined -16% in June. Even so, June 2025 recorded the highest monthly volume of the year at approximately $38 billion—above the 2025 average of $35.7 billion. However, June 2024 was a tough comparison, with $45 billion in volume versus a 2024 monthly average of $36.4 billion. Comparisons become more favorable in July, August, and September 2024, which saw volumes of $32.3 billion, $39.2 billion, and $35.2 billion, respectively—potentially creating a favorable backdrop for a continued increases in year-over-year changes in transaction volumes.

The positive implications of the tax bill for CRE may help to mitigate any impacts of a tariff induced slowdown in activity. As a review, the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”, which was signed into law on July 4, 2025, preserves and, in many cases, strengthens the tax advantages of owning U.S. CRE—both equity and debt. These provisions have the combined impact of lowering taxable income while increasing cash on cash returns and net operating cash flow. Additionally, section 899 (which was expected to have negative implications for foreign investment in the U.S., given its retaliatory tax measures) was removed from the final bill.

See our note titled The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” and implications for commercial real estate for further analysis.

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