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European real estate funds extended their winning streak in the second quarter, with performance data revealing both resilience and nuance into what’s driving returns. European ODCE indices have now delivered five consecutive quarters of positive performance, but momentum slowed in 2Q25—and the real story of strength lies beneath the surface.

Momentum slows in open-ended core diversified funds

The European ODCE index gained +0.22% in 2Q25, marking its fifth straight quarter in positive territory. That’s a solid run, but one that’s decelerated after +1.51% in 1Q25 and +0.94% in 4Q24. Capital growth, which had been positive for two straight quarters, slipped back to negative territory at -0.58%. Notably, dispersion across funds widened, with returns ranging from +0.34% at the lower quartile to +1.23% at the top, reflecting growing differentiation across strategies.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the U.S. ODCE index returned +0.81% in 2Q25, with income (+0.80%) doing all the work. Historically, U.S. funds have had the edge, outperforming Europe in 71% of quarters since 2011 and delivering annualized returns of +6.5% versus +3.3% in Europe.

Focused strategies pull ahead as diversified funds cool

While diversified core funds are showing signs of cooling, more focused strategies generally accelerate quarter-over-quarter. The broader INREV Fund Index delivered a stronger +0.99% total return, supported by income (+0.82%) and modest capital growth (+0.17%). Within the index, multi-sector funds (47% of GAV) lagged at +0.51%, with negative capital returns (-0.28%). By contrast, single-sector funds posted stronger results:

  • Residential: +1.95% (with +1.35% capital growth)
  • Retail: +1.22% (income-driven at +1.21%)
  • Industrial: +0.90% (mostly income-driven)
  • Office: +0.58% (also income-led)

Value-add funds (8.9% of GAV) also posted strong returns at 1.33% (+0.93% capital and +0.40% income). These strategies have historically lagged core strategies, but there are signs that the opportunity set in Europe may be expanding.

Investment outlook for the remainder of 2025

Europe’s unlevered asset level total returns across all property and strategy types already topped U.S. results in 1Q25 (+1.7% vs. +1.3%) and trailing four-quarter returns (as of 1Q25) stand at +6.5% for Europe compared to +2.8% in the U.S. Returns in the U.S. in 2Q25 were 1.2% pushing four-quarter returns higher to 4.3%.

Unlevered asset-level total returns for 2Q25 will be released in early September, but the outlook already points to continued European leadership. Europe’s wider cap rates, falling interest rates, and an improving economic outlook are all expected to support returns, with projections of 6–7% in Europe versus ±5% in the U.S for 2025.

Bottom line

European CRE has historically been viewed as a “deep value” investment opportunity given its wider cap rate, but slower growth. Today, however, it may be emerging as a growth opportunity amid a strengthening economic backdrop. In the next cycle, we expect fundamentals to be the primary driver of returns, making disciplined property and market selection decisive factors for investment performance.

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