Home Insights Real estate REITs: Real yield sensitivity creates strategic opportunity

Despite a challenging start to 2025, listed REITs have held up better than broader equities, benefiting from a defensive market rotation. With valuations still attractive and fundamentals holding steady, REITs offer a timely mix of resilience and rate sensitivity, while their strong inverse correlation to real yields could be a tailwind if policy eases amid slowing growth. In a market defined by volatility and concentration risk, REITs stand out as a differentiated source of return for investor portfolios.

Amid slowing growth, heightened policy uncertainty, and persistent market volatility, investors are gravitating toward defensive sectors. Listed REITs are emerging as a relative bright spot—posting one of their strongest starts to the year versus equities in over a decade—underscoring their appeal in a risk-off environment.

REITs already have two key ingredients for a compelling investment case: attractive valuations and solid fundamentals. What’s been missing in recent years is the third – and often most critical – element: accommodative interest rates.

Rising real yields have posed a headwind for REIT performance, but that pressure may be easing as policy and growth expectations evolve. The correlation between REIT returns and real yields has reached an extreme of -0.9. While damaging in a rising rate environment, this heightened sensitivity has historically driven a strong upside when yields decline.

At the same time, REITs remain relatively insulated from tariff policies. While indirect risks exist, such as construction material costs and potential tariff-driven slowdowns, most listed REITs have limited direct exposure. Additionally, REIT earnings have tailwinds building, with new supply starting to come down and an expected increase in commercial real estate transaction activity this year.

With earnings durability, favorable entry points, and low correlations to concentrated mega-cap growth stocks, listed REITs may offer investors a compelling combination of downside resilience and interest rate sensitivity in an environment where diversification and defensiveness are once again in demand.

Explore REIT Market Perspectives to learn about what’s driving returns and where opportunities may emerge next.

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Disclosure

Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Real estate investment options are subject to some risks inherent in real estate and real estate investment trusts (REITs), such as risks associated with general and local economic conditions. Investing in REITs involves special risks, including interest rate fluctuation, credit risks, and liquidity risks, including interest conditions on real estate values and occupancy rates.

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