Home Insights Real estate REITs: On course for a recovery

The onset of the Federal Reserve’s rate cutting cycle is expected to serve as a major catalyst for REITs, boosting valuations as discount rates fall. Historically, REITs have outperformed during similar economic conditions, and sectors with resilient, long-term cash flows are attractive today. Investors seeking real estate exposure should see this period as a compelling opportunity to benefit from REITs’ liquidity and potential for cap rate compression.

As we move into the next phase of the economic cycle, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate cuts are poised to be a pivotal catalyst for Real Estate Investment Trust (REITs) stocks. Historically, falling interest rates have proven beneficial for REITs, as declining yields reduce discount rates and boost the value of future cash flows. Notably, this dynamic has already been in motion, with REITs beginning their recovery in anticipation of Fed cuts.

Looking back at the 1999-2003 rate cut cycle, REITs outperformed equities significantly during a similar economic landscape, which was characterized by a mild recession and rate cuts. As the Fed continues easing, REITs could once again benefit, especially in sectors like senior housing, wireless towers, and cold storage, where long-term, defensive cash flows offer resilience.

In addition to favorable economic conditions, REIT valuations remain attractive compared to broader equities and private real estate funds. Despite their recent performance, REITs trade at a discount, and the current environment presents an opportunity for investors. As rates decline further, REITs are likely to maintain their first-mover advantage relative to private real estate, benefiting from liquidity and favorable cap rate compression. For those seeking to allocate capital to real estate, REITs offer a compelling entry point, with the potential for continued outperformance during the Fed’s rate cutting cycle.

For more of our thoughts on listed REITs preferences, read our full perspective.

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