Declining construction spending puts commercial real estate in the spotlight

August 4, 2025 | 3 min read

Art Jones

Senior Director, Global Real Estate Research and Strategy

The latest construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau shows a continued pullback in new development activity, with total spending declining by 0.3% in May, marking the ninth consecutive monthly decrease since September 2024. On a year-over-year basis, construction put in place is down 4%, signaling a persistent softening in development appetite amid a more cautious investment environment.

While this trend may point to potential weakness in the broader commercial real estate (CRE) market, it represents a constructive development for investors and current property owners. The slowdown in construction activity helps ease future supply pressures at a critical moment—just as valuations are beginning to stabilize and a new phase of the cycle emerges.

CRE is finding its footing

Commercial real estate is emerging from a two-year correction largely shaped by capital market dynamics—namely, high inflation and elevated interest rates. During that period, property values declined by nearly 20%, driven by capital stack recalibrations and widening bid-ask spreads. However, underlying operating fundamentals have shown surprising resilience. Excluding certain overbuilt pockets in the apartment and industrial sectors, occupancy, rental growth, and net operating income (NOI) have remained broadly in line with trend, though the office and life sciences sectors remain notable exceptions.

The double edged sword of slower construction

In many ways, the drop in construction spending is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it reflects ongoing challenges for developers, who face higher interest rates, increased carry costs, and continued uncertainty around labor and materials availability. Lower property valuations have also depressed replacement costs, putting additional pressure on development pipelines. On the other hand, a slowdown in new construction supports sector-wide stabilization in property fundamentals, especially as macroeconomic headwinds mount and job growth, the primary driver of real estate demand, begins to moderate amid policy uncertainty in Washington and persistent labor shortages.

The spending decline itself is not surprising. Data on under-construction projects across key CRE sectors—particularly industrial and multifamily—began to recede shortly after the Fed began tightening monetary policy in 2022, which was also when property values began to correct.

Diverging sector dynamics

For the apartment and industrial sectors, which had seen excess development in several major markets, the slowdown has been beneficial. It has allowed the market to absorb surplus space and has supported a recovery in occupancy, even in overbuilt submarkets. The amount of new supply under construction has dropped 50–60% across major sectors, with industrial and multifamily now tracking at or near historic lows for the first time in years.

In contrast, office and retail development has remained subdued since the pandemic, trailing well below long-term historical norms. The office sector continues to face structural challenges, driven by excess supply—particularly among commodity assets in both urban and suburban markets—and persistently low workplace attendance. Retail presents a more nuanced picture: With limited development since the Global Financial Crisis, many brick-and-mortar retailers are being forced to retrofit outdated space as they search for modern configurations that meet today’s operational needs.

Implications for investors: Supply reset and opportunity ahead

While each property sector has its unique dynamics, the overall decline in construction spending sets the stage for opportunity. For investors, this slowdown represents a reset of the development cycle—one that is likely to be characterized by moderate value appreciation and income-driven growth. More measured supply additions could create upside during the early recovery stages, particularly in sectors where demand fundamentals remain strong.

Although higher interest rates and capital costs remain a constraint—especially for closed-end value-add strategies—core assets may benefit from reduced competition from new development. This may offer modest tailwinds for income-oriented investors positioning portfolios for the next phase of the cycle.

Real estate

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The contents of this website have not been verified or approved by any competent regulatory or supervisory authority. No liability, whether in negligence or otherwise, arising directly or indirectly from the use of the information or any part of it on this website is accepted and no representation, warranty or undertaking, whether express or implied, is or will be made at any time by Principal Real Estate or its affiliates or any of their respective advisers, directors, officers, employees, representatives or other agents (“Principal Agents”) for any information or any of the opinions contained herein or for any errors, omissions or misstatements.

None of Principal Real Estate or its affiliates or any Principal Agents makes or has been authorised to make any representation or warranties, whether express or implied, in relation to Principal Real Estate or regarding the truth, accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained on this website at any time. No representation or warranty is given by Principal Real Estate, its affiliates or the Principal Agents as to the achievement or reasonableness of, and no reliance should be placed on any projections, targets, estimates or forecasts contained in the information on this website. Furthermore, nothing contained on this website is or should be relied on as a promise or representation as to the future. No reliance may be placed by any person for any purpose whatsoever on the information or opinions contained on this website or on its completeness, accuracy or fairness at any time.

Principal Global Investors (Europe) Limited is not authorised by the FCA to directly deal with retail investors; any distribution of the Fund to retail investors in Europe is facilitated by fund distributors with which Principal Global Investors (Europe) Limited has entered distribution arrangements, pursuant to advice provided to investors by those distributors, based on the documents Principal Global Investors (Europe) Limited provides. Retail investors should not be provided with access to this website.

The name of the Swiss representative is ACOLIN Fund Services AG, Stadelhoferstrasse 18, CH-8001 Zürich. The name of the Swiss paying agent is Banque Cantonale de Genève, 17, quai de l’Ile, 1204 Geneva. Investors can obtain the prospectus, trust deed, the simplified prospectuses and the annual and semi-annual reports free of charge from the representative in Switzerland.
The value of units and the income from them may fall as well as rise.

Investments in the Funds are neither insured nor guaranteed by the US Government or the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and are not deposits or obligations of, or guaranteed by, Principal Global Investors.

No Solicitation
Nothing contained in this website shall constitute an offer or solicitation, in relation to units in the Funds or generally, in any jurisdiction or in any circumstances in which such offer or solicitation is unlawful or not authorised.

In particular, shares issued by the Company, and units in the Funds, have not been and will not be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933 as amended or the securities laws of any state or political subdivision of the United States and may not, except in a transaction which does not violate US securities laws, be directly offered or sold in the United States or to any US Person. The Company will not be registered under the United States Investment Company Act of 1940 as amended.

This website is reserved exclusively for non-US persons and should not be accessed by any person in the United States.

No Investment Advice
The information in this website contains general information only on investment matters and should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such nor should it be construed as specific investment advice, an opinion or recommendation. The general information it contains does not take account of any investor’s investment objectives, particular needs or financial situation, nor should it be relied upon in any way as a forecast or guarantee of future events regarding a particular investment or the markets in general. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and should not be relied upon as a significant basis for an investment decision.

You should also inform yourself as to (a) the possible tax consequences, (b) the legal requirements and (c) any foreign exchange restrictions or exchange control requirements which you might encounter under the laws of the countries of your citizenship, residence or domicile and which might be relevant to any investment, including the subscription, holding, transfer or disposal of units in the Funds

Delegation of Investment Management to Affiliates

Products upon which composite results contained in this material, if any, are based may not themselves be available in the United Kingdom and certain other jurisdictions; however, the underlying investment management capability can be made available to institutional investors subject to all applicable local regulations and restrictions. In connection with its management of client portfolios, PGIE may delegate management authority to affiliates that are not authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. In any such case, the client may not benefit from all protections afforded by rules and regulations enacted under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000.

Disclaimer
The information on this website is given by Principal Global Investors in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as at their date. However, Principal Global Investors makes no representation or warranty of any kind for the accuracy or completeness of the information and it is under no obligation to update or correct any errors in the information after the date of publication. This website also contains videos where the comments were valid on the date the video was recorded. Markets move continuously and you should only rely on current information for any investment decisions.

Subject to applicable law, Principal Global Investors and its affiliates and their respective directors, employees and associates do not accept any responsibility arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information and do not accept any liability for any loss or damage, however caused, as a result of any person relying on any information on the website or being unable to access the website.

The Internet is not a totally reliable and secure medium of communication. Principal Global Investors accepts no liability for the security or confidentiality of information transmitted in this way and any such transmission of information shall be at your own risk.

The entire content of this website is subject to copyright with all rights reserved. You may not copy, reproduce, distribute or modify the content of this website without the prior written permission of Principal Global Investors.

No instructions for investment purposes will be accepted directly from this website or by e-mail.

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You may view, download for caching purposes only, and print content from the website for your own personal use, subject to the restrictions set out below and elsewhere in these Terms of Use.

No Guarantee of Timeliness
This website may contain videos where the comments were valid on the date the video was recorded. Markets move continuously and you should only rely on current information for any investment decisions. The information and materials contained on this website, and the terms, conditions, and descriptions that appear, are subject to change. All content on this website is presented only as of the date published or indicated, and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. In addition, you are responsible for setting the cache settings on your browser to ensure you are receiving the most recent data.

No Warranties
The information on this website has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however Principal Global Investors and its affiliates do not independently verify or guarantee its accuracy or validity. The information and services provided on this website are provided ""AS IS"" and without warranties of any kind, either expressed or implied. To the fullest extent permissible pursuant to applicable law, Principal Global Investors disclaims all warranties, including, but not limited to, any warranty of non-infringement of third-party rights and any implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. Principal Global Investors does not warrant, either expressly or impliedly, the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained on this website and does not warrant that the functions contained in this website will be uninterrupted or error-free, that defects will be corrected, or that the website will be free of viruses or other harmful components. Principal Global Investors expressly disclaims all liability for errors and omissions in the materials on this website and for the use or interpretation by others of information contained on the website. Subject to any contrary provisions of applicable law, no company in the Principal Financial Group nor any of their employees or directors gives any warranty of reliability or accuracy nor accepts any responsibility arising in any other way (including by reason of negligence) for errors or omissions on this website.

If you have questions, please email us.

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This website contains general information only on investment matters and nothing in this website is intended to constitute or form part of any offer or inducement to issue or sell, or any solicitation of any offer to subscribe for or purchase, any securities or investment products in the UAE (including the Dubai International Financial Centre) and accordingly should not be construed as such. Information in this website is not directed at you if we are prohibited by any law of any jurisdiction from making the information on this site available to you and is not intended for any use that would be contrary to local law or regulation. Products or services mentioned on this site are subject to legal and regulatory requirements in applicable jurisdictions and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Accordingly, persons are required to inform themselves of and observe any such restrictions.

The information in this website is being made available on the basis that the recipient acknowledges and understands that the entities and securities to which it may relate have not been approved, licensed by or registered with the UAE Central Bank, the Dubai Financial Services Authority or any other relevant licensing authority or governmental agency in the UAE or elsewhere in the Middle East.

The information in the following website should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation for the purchase or sale of any security. The value of investments and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Member firms of Principal (collectively, the “Firms”) do not guarantee any investment results and there can be no assurance that the strategies employed will improve investment performance, and make no guarantee that a client’s investment objectives will be achieved and no warranties or representations, expressed or implied, are made by the Firms concerning the benefits of these strategies discussed herein. The information in this website has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources that the Firms believe to be reliable; however, the Firms do not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information and are not responsible for any errors or omissions. This website also contains videos where the comments were valid on the date the video was recorded. Markets move continuously and you should only rely on current information for any investment decisions.

This website contains general information only on investment matters and should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. The information it contains does not take account of any investor’s investment objectives, particular needs or financial situation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and should not be relied upon as a significant basis for an investment decision. You should consider whether an investment fits your investment objectives, particular needs and financial situation before making any investment decision.

Nothing in this website should be construed as investment, tax, legal or other advice.

The content of this website has not been approved by or filed with the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Services Authority.

Access to this website is only permitted for “Professional Clients” as defined in the Conduct of Business of the Dubai Financial Services Authority’s Rulebook. If you are not a “Professional Client”, you may not access this website and you should select the “Decline” link below.

By selecting the “Accept” button below, and entering this website, you agree to these terms and confirm and represent that you are a “Professional Client”.