CRE lending index at fifth-highest level ever

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) recently published its 3Q25 Survey of Commercial / Multifamily Mortgage Banker Originations, which provides quarterly updates on changes in the originations market. It details changes in the volume of loans originated and breaks down the data by property type and investor type. Notably, in the latest release, lending activity rose meaningfully across nearly all segments of the market.

The volume of commercial and multifamily loan originations increased 18% from the previous quarter, 36% year-over-year, and is now up 47% year-to-date compared with the same nine-month period in 2024. While seasonal patterns can influence quarter-over-quarter comparisons, the year-over-year and year-to-date gains indicate a broader recovery is underway in the CRE debt space.

Importantly, the index stands at 354, which is 75% higher than its historical average of around 203 since 1Q 2002. There have only been four other times that the index has stood at a higher level: 2Q22 (370), 4Q21 (533), 3Q21 (360), and 4Q19 (365). The current strength underscores a key takeaway - despite higher interest rates and macroeconomic uncertainty, CRE lending markets remain both open and liquid.

Office lending surging while industrial and healthcare decelerate

Lending to office and retail is surging, increasing +67% / +139% QoQ and +185% / +100% year-over-year, respectively. On the other hand, lending to industrial and healthcare shows signs of deceleration from robust levels, declining -17% / -6% QoQ and +5% / -43% YoY, respectively. That said, every property type is higher year-to-date compared to the same 9-month period in 2024, led by office at +176%.