Home Insights Macro views Who benefits in a trade war?
Arial view of a city skyline.

Uncertainty created by fluid trade policy means tariffs will likely continue to be an essential part of equity market analysis going forward. As with any shock, however, this new environment will create winners and losers, across firm size but also sectors and industries. While the market backdrop is mired in continued bouts of volatility, this divided environment presents compelling opportunities underneath the surface.

Trade policy remains a significant driver of uncertainty despite the temporary U.S.-China trade truce. Import tariffs are likely to remain elevated, even if they settle at a slightly different level than where they are today. As a result, tariffs will continue to be an essential part of equity market analysis going forward.

As with any shock, however, this new environment will likely create both winners and losers, with tariff vulnerabilities differing not just by firm size but also across sectors and industries.

Large-cap firms are generally less vulnerable, thanks to their diversified supply chains and ability to manage inventory swings. Even within the likely heavily impacted Tech sector, software and internet companies may offer relative safety. Meanwhile, defensive sectors like Utilities and Real Estate are less exposed due to inelastic or domestic demand. At the same time, Financials may benefit from a domestic focus, as well as potential upside stemming from market volatility.

The fluid nature of trade policy means that the market backdrop will remain uncertain in the period ahead, and investors should prepare for continued market volatility. This creates an opportune time to revisit diversification within equity allocations, with a focus on previously overlooked value-oriented stocks and international equities. This bifurcated environment should present compelling opportunities for investors who remain disciplined and fully invested throughout the trade war.

For a deeper dive into how rising U.S. tariffs are driving sector divergence across the equity market, read Winners and losers from the trade war: An equities view.

Macro views
Equities
Disclosure

Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and should not be relied upon to make an investment decision.

The information presented has been derived from sources believed to be accurate; however, we do not independently verify or guarantee its accuracy or validity. Any reference to a specific investment or security does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold such investment or security, and does not take account of any investor’s investment objectives or financial situation and should not be construed as specific investment advice, a recommendation, or be relied on in any way as a guarantee, promise, forecast or prediction of future events regarding an investment or the markets in general. The opinions and predictions expressed are subject to change without prior notice.

Securities are offered through Principal Securities, Inc., 800‐547‐7754, Member SIPC and/or independent broker/dealers.

Principal Asset Management leads global asset management at Principal.®

For Public Distribution in the U.S. For Institutional, Professional, Qualified and/or Wholesale Investor Use only in other permitted jurisdictions as defined by local laws and regulations.

In Europe, this communication is directed exclusively at Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties and should not be relied upon by Retail Clients.

© 2025, Principal Financial Services, Inc. Principal Asset ManagementSM is a trade name of Principal Global Investors, LLC. Principal®, Principal Financial Group®, Principal Asset Management, and Principal and the logomark design are registered trademarks and service marks of Principal Financial Services, Inc., a Principal Financial Group company, in various countries around the world and may be used only with the permission of Principal Financial Services, Inc.

4565715

About the author