Despite heightened market volatility driven by recession fears, Big Tech struggles, and technical challenges, underlying fundamentals still suggest limited economic weakness. With improving liquidity, more reasonable tech valuations, and the potential for gradual Fed rate cuts starting in September, investors should navigate summer turbulence with a steady focus on long-term opportunities.

Financial markets have been hit by severe turbulence, pushing volatility to recent extremes, as recession concerns, Big Tech disappointments, and challenging technicals collide.

  1. A disappointingly weak jobs report raised fears that the U.S. is heading for a hard landing. Some labor market indicators have been slowing, but there is sufficient uncertainty about the weather’s impact on job growth to avoid jumping to recessionary conclusions.
  2. The growing realization that AI-related revenues may take longer to be realized hit the sector hard. Yet, Big Tech remains an important secular growth area, and valuations are more reasonable now, suggesting renewed strong interest in the sector.
  3. Low liquidity, crowded positions, and the unwind of the yen carry trade amplified market responses. Liquidity should start to improve, positioning is less extreme now, and the yen carry trade unwind is at least partially complete.

Markets may stay on edge this summer as they look to decipher the underlying strength of the U.S. economy and as valuation and technical extremes unwind. Strong household and corporate balance sheets suggest economic weakness should be limited. Importantly, the Fed is set to start cutting rates in September at a gradual pace, a significant measure that could help counter growing economic concerns. If concerns persist, the Fed has plenty of room to cut rates. Summer volatility is infamous—investors should keep cool heads.

For more takeaways on the current market environment, read our latest bulletin Making sense of market volatility. Alternatively, watch our experts provided some clarity into the current situation and their expectations for the remainder of 2024.

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