Home Insights Macro views Principal Well-Being Index: Small businesses are holding onto their staff

Despite a drop in business sentiment, measured by the Principal Well-Being Index, small and medium sized businesses are holding onto their staff, likely due to the memory of post-COVID difficulty in rehiring. Such a preference for labor hoarding comes even before the U.S.-China trade truce, indicating that small business layoffs may be even less likely in the months ahead. This should help prevent unemployment from rising significantly this year, which, in turn, lowers recession risk.

According to the Principal Well-Being Index, small and medium-sized businesses—despite a sharp plunge in sentiment—are planning to hold onto their staff, likely due to the memory of post-COVID difficulty in rehiring.

The Principal Well-Being Index tracks sentiment across small and medium-sized businesses by asking a set of eight questions about current conditions and the economic outlook. Now in its 12th year, the latest survey was fielded amid peak trade policy uncertainty from April 14 to 25. It gathered responses from 1,000 businesses—comparable in scale to the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.

Survey results revealed that business confidence has fallen to the second-lowest level in the survey’s history, mainly due to concerns over rising costs and tariff-driven uncertainty. Survey results also revealed, however, that many businesses continue to favor labor hoarding over layoffs, and employers instead are doubling down on implementing operational efficiencies and cost-cutting strategies to manage risk.

With peak economic uncertainty likely passed, and despite small businesses—employing nearly half the U.S. private workforce—bearing the brunt of economic uncertainty, the risk of widespread small business layoffs appears to be receding. Therefore, while the economy is set to slow in the months ahead, unemployment is unlikely to rise significantly, and this suggests that the broader economy is well-positioned to weather increased policy headwinds.

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The WBI is recurring research used to track sentiment around repeated financial health measures and timely issues relevant to small and midsize businesses and their employees. Business owners, decision makers, and business leader participants who represent companies with between 2 to 10,000 employees and offer health insurance and/or retirement benefits provide information by completing a 15 minute online survey. Research is also conducted with an employee audience of those 18 and older who are employed full time and have an employer who offers health insurance and/or retirement as a sponsored benefit. Access to sample is provided by Dynata, a third-party research panel provider.

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