Home Insights Macro views China’s flow-driven equity rally may have further upside
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Despite mounting macro headwinds at the start of the year, Chinese equities have continued to deliver positive performance. Fueling the rally has been a consumption-driven stimulus approach from domestic policymakers, which has helped restore retail investor confidence. While near-term flows can provide further upside, the durability for the equity rally will hinge on policy choices ahead. A sustained bull market will require more than just liquidity, but a measured stimulus approach that limits leverage-driven excesses.

The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten-year high in August, fueled by ongoing stimulus efforts from policymakers in China that have helped stabilize growth concerns and revive investor confidence.

While the extended U.S.-China trade war truce has helped ease concerns, the response from domestic policymakers has been a significant positive catalyst. Contrary to the old “bazooka stimulus” playbook aimed at investment, policymakers have instead adopted a more managed approach focused on consumption. Thus far, this has included a consumption trade-in program, a birth subsidy, and a consumer loan interest subsidy. As a result, consensus forecasts for China’s 2025 GDP growth have rebounded, helping revive domestic investor confidence, especially among retail investors.

Recent deposit data has shown increased rotation out of household bank deposits (savings) into non-bank financial institutions—a proxy for increased market participation. Looking ahead, these retail flows could provide further momentum for the equity rally, and with bank deposits still elevated, the rebalancing is likely to have further to run.

With retail flows potentially driving equity market upside from here, the pace of the rally becomes increasingly important. While a repeat of the 2015 rally, which was largely driven by leverage, would risk instability, to the extent that Chinese policy makers can continue to adopt a balanced approach with stimulus and prevent excesses from forming, a healthy and long-lasting bull market can emerge.

Macro views
Equities
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