AI has evolved from an investment theme centered on tech giants into a key driver of U.S. economic resilience, even despite this year’s macro headwinds. With AI-related investment projected to reach around $1.3 trillion in the coming years, its strong economic influence will likely persist. This new growth engine—combined with monetary and fiscal tailwinds—could sow the seeds for a sustained equity rally in 2026, potentially rewarding a broader set of companies beyond the dominant AI leaders.
AI has dominated the investment backdrop, with companies accelerating AI-driven spending despite cyclical headwinds, and posting remarkable share price appreciation. What began as an equity market story of big tech cushioning the S&P 500 during volatile times has evolved into a broader macro narrative.
AI-related spending contributed almost 1% to the 2.1% year-over-year growth in GDP in H1 2025. To put this in perspective, private investment outside tech detracted from GDP during the same period. Therefore, significant AI-driven investment kept overall investment positive, helping sustain economic momentum.
It’s important to note that tech’s contribution to GDP may be overstated without considering imports—semiconductors and computers largely sourced from Taiwan and China—which subtract from GDP. Conversely, AI’s potential multiplier effects—rising wealth, productivity gains, and employment growth—could mean tech’s impact is even stronger than the headline numbers suggest. The bottom line is that AI’s economic footprint is strong and shows no signs of slowing, as more companies plan to invest heavily in AI.
The significance and timing of the returns on AI investment remain uncertain. However, monetary easing, fiscal policy, and easing trade uncertainty, combined with AI spending as a new growth engine, point to a more favorable macro backdrop in 2026. The result could be an equity rally that expands from just a handful of dominant AI leaders to a broader group, particularly those with tangible gains from AI adoption.
Read Investing in the AI era for more key insights on AI capex and what it might mean for markets and the economy.
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