Home Insights Fixed income Rate cuts: Now may be the time to extend duration

With the Fed likely to begin its rate cutting cycle in September, investors should consider extending duration now in high-quality fixed income to capture potential gains. Historically, bond yields drop ahead of Fed rate cuts, offering a window of opportunity to enhance returns without waiting for official policy shifts. Positioning in longer-duration assets now can provide income stability and potential price appreciation in a slowing economy.

As the economy slows and inflation moderates, the Federal Reserve (Fed) appears to have gained the confidence needed to start cutting rates in 2024, the first of which is very likely to come in September. Historically, bond yields tend to decline ahead of Fed rate cuts, reflecting market anticipation of easier monetary policy. This preemptive decline in yields can create a favorable environment for investors to extend duration, capturing potential price gains and enhanced returns without waiting for the Fed to formally adjust its policy stance.

Rate cutting cycles are typically prolonged, averaging 26 months with an average reduction in the Fed Funds rate of 441 basis points. During these cycles, returns on cash and cash equivalents tend to decline relative to longer-duration assets. High-quality fixed income has consistently outperformed 3-month T-bills both before and after the start of rate cuts, regardless of whether the economy enters a recession or avoids one.

With high-quality fixed income performing well in all six rate cutting cycles since 1982, extending duration now presents a strategic opportunity. Short-duration investment-grade credit can be a lower-risk option for investors prioritizing income and liquidity, while intermediate-duration core fixed income offers attractive yields and potential price appreciation, especially during a slowdown. For tax-sensitive investors, the municipal tax-exemption value is at its highest since 2008, providing additional incentives to extend duration in high-quality fixed income.

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Disclosure

Past performance does not guarantee future return. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Fixed-income investment options are subject to interest rate risk, and their value will decline as interest rates rise. Potential investors should be aware that Investment grade corporate bonds carry credit risks, default risk, liquidity risks, currency risks, operational risks, legal risks, counterparty risk and valuation risks. Lower-rated securities are subject to additional credit and default risks.

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