Home Insights Fixed income Fixed income: Identifying opportunities amid policy-driven volatility
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As we enter the second half of 2025, we expect a market environment shaped by headline-driven volatility, steady (albeit moderating) economic growth, and persistent inflation. In this context, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts are likely to rise, supported by economic resilience and amplified by political pressures. Against this backdrop, fixed income appears well-positioned to deliver attractive returns, benefiting from both compelling yields and a potential duration tailwind. In the near term, investors should emphasize quality, remain selective, and retain flexibility to adjust as policy dynamics evolve. As rate cuts become more imminent, high-quality, longer-duration fixed income—particularly investment grade and select securitized sectors—may outperform on a risk-adjusted basis.

The U.S. economy this year has shown remarkable resilience despite uncertainty. Although “soft data” has weakened, hard data on labor and consumer spending remains strong, though consumer demand and labor market data are expected to soften over the summer. As markets face challenges from tariffs and uncertainty, potential tailwinds, including trade agreements, the budget bill, deregulation, and possible Fed cuts, could emerge. If fundamentals stay strong, near-term volatility may present a buying opportunity.

Proactive policies within the EU boosted growth beyond consensus predictions, supporting European financial markets. This confidence lifted the euro by 6% against the dollar, despite the ECB cutting rates by 50bps as the Fed held rates steady. European fixed income markets are likely to continue outperforming, as U.S. growth indicators suggest weakness.

For investors, it’s crucial to focus on economic fundamentals rather than daily headlines. After spreads widened following Liberation Day, it would have been tempting to reduce risk, but that would have been a poor choice, as spreads retraced to roughly pre-Liberation Day levels. In this uncertain environment, fixed income is well-positioned to deliver favorable outcomes across various asset classes. Investors should prioritize quality, exercise selectivity, and maintain the agility to adapt as policy developments unfold.

For a deeper dive into fixed income markets, read our 3Q 2025 Fixed Income Perspectives.

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Disclosure

Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past Performance does not guarantee future return. All financial investments involve an element of risk. Therefore, the value of the investment and the income from it will vary and the initial investment amount cannot be guaranteed. Fixed Income investments are subject to interest rate risk; when interest rates rise, the price of debt typically declines.

Potential investors should be aware that Investment grade corporate bonds carry credit risks, default risk, liquidity risks, currency risks, operational risks, legal risks, counterparty risk and valuation risks. Non-investment grade securities offer a potentially higher yield but carry a greater degree of risk.

The information presented has been derived from sources believed to be accurate; however, we do not independently verify or guarantee its accuracy or validity. Any reference to a specific investment or security does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold such investment or security, and does not take account of any investor’s investment objectives or financial situation and should not be construed as specific investment advice, a recommendation, or be relied on in any way as a guarantee, promise, forecast or prediction of future events regarding an investment or the markets in general. The opinions and predictions expressed are subject to change without prior notice.

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