Home Insights Equities Key catalysts for a sustained rebound in small caps
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After a long period of underperformance, the Russell 2000 finally seems to be showing signs of life. A potential easing of monetary conditions has been a positive catalyst this month, amplified by attractive valuations. It is likely that small cap fundamentals will become a greater focus ahead, and whether earnings will deliver without relying on Tech momentum. As such, economic resilience is likely key for a sustained small cap rally.

The last time the Russell 2000 reached a record high was in November of 2021, compared to just this month for the S&P 500. Indeed, the tech-heavy S&P has driven this cycle's momentum, pushing the valuation gap between both indices to decade highs. Now, with such attractive valuations on offer and the strong likelihood of a Fed cut in September, small caps have again caught investors’ attention.

So far this month, the Russell has outpaced the S&P by nearly 5%. Whether this will be a short-lived bounce or a sustained rally for small caps depends on having enough catalysts to support earnings growth ahead. With the Russell 2000 unlikely to benefit from the same AI tailwinds as the S&P 500 (given the tech sector’s smaller weight in the index), a durable rally instead likely rests on:

  1. Economic resilience: a convincing rebound in leading economic indicators
  2. Preemptive rate cuts: aimed at stimulating growth rather than easing distress
  3. Supportive fiscal and regulatory policies: tax cuts and lower regulatory costs improve earnings
  4. Tariff policy clarity: negotiations or further visibility about the trade environment

A combination of these macro factors could foster a more favorable environment for small caps. With valuations already compelling, the stage is set for a strong rally—but its durability will ultimately hinge on the economy avoiding a deeper slowdown.

For a closer look at the valuation backdrop, monetary policy dynamics, and investment implications behind the recent small cap rebound, read Small cap equities: What could fuel a sustainable rally?

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