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The recent run in equities appears to be at odds with weakening labor market signals, which has led to questions about the sustainability of the rally and the broader health of the U.S. economy. However, resilience in consumer spending and capital expenditures continues to underpin this year’s earnings momentum. Going forward, stimulative monetary and fiscal policies, along with improvements in lagging sectors such as manufacturing and housing, could further support the economy and extend the equity market rally.

S&P 500 Index vs. Labor Market and Business Cycle Surprise Indices

Percent difference between forecasts and actual data releases, YTD
Chart showing Percent difference between forecasts and actual data releases for S&P 500 vs. Labor Market

Source: Bloomberg, Principal Asset Management. Data as of September 17, 2025.

An acknowledgement of the recent weakness in employment trends backed the Fed’s decision to cut policy rates at its September meeting. While the Fed’s projections hint at a labor market in “curious balance,” concerns about the hiring environment still cast uncertainty over the health of the U.S. economy.

Despite labor demand eroding for much of the year, and following April’s Liberation Day selloff, the S&P 500 has reached record highs. The divergence between market strength and labor weakness has raised questions about the true underpinnings and sustainability of the market rally.

Behind challenged labor market headlines, underlying consumer and capex resilience remains a backbone of this year’s earnings strength. Additionally, business cycle leading indicators—ISM Services and regional manufacturing Fed surveys—have surprised to the upside in recent months. The broader picture of economic robustness, further supported by tight credit spreads, continues to underpin the strength in the equity market.

Looking ahead, the combination of monetary easing alongside fiscal and regulatory stimulus could bolster an economy that has proven resilient to this year’s headwinds. A policy-driven recovery may help revive the more sluggish segments of the economy, including housing, manufacturing, and employment, suggesting that equities, beyond the large tech leaders, could be poised for further modest gains.

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