Home Insights Equities Earnings growth: Supporting markets as volatility subsides

As recent market volatility eases for the time being, investors are refocusing on corporate earnings, which remain strong with the S&P 500 showing a healthy 7.4% growth over the past year. While concerns around consumer spending persist, earnings growth, supported by improving inflation and stable GDP, continues to drive the market outlook. Looking ahead, consensus estimates project a 10% growth in 2024, signaling potential market stability despite macroeconomic uncertainties.

Earnings growth rate
S&P 500, 1985–present

S&P 500 earnings growth rate since 1985
Source: Clearnomics, LSEG, Standard & Poor’s, Principal Asset Management. Data as of August 20, 2024.

As recent market volatility subsides, investors are shifting their attention back to fundamental factors such as corporate earnings. While there are concerns in areas such as consumer spending, the overall growth rate for S&P 500 profits remains healthy. In fact, the current earnings rebound, which began one year ago, has led to a trailing 12-month growth rate of 7.4%— just around the historical average. Since markets are largely driven by earnings growth in the long run, investors would be wise to continue following these trends rather than day-to-day market swings.

In particular, second quarter earnings reports for S&P 500 companies showed a blended growth rate of 10.9%—the fastest since late 2021. While 79% of reporting companies have beaten earnings estimates, the market has been more critical, rewarding positive surprises less and punishing negative ones more severely compared to historical average. Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Information Technology sectors have performed well, while Communication Services and Energy have struggled.

These earnings figures have been boosted by macroeconomic trends such as improving inflation, anticipated Fed rate cuts, still-low unemployment, and surprisingly stable GDP growth. Consensus estimates suggest that the S&P 500’s earnings-per-share could continue to grow 10% in 2024, and 14% over the next twelve months. While there is still significant macro uncertainty, continued earnings growth should help ease valuation concerns and support markets over the next phase of the cycle.

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