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Macro views

U.S. debt ceiling: Bills borrowing and brinkmanship

Quick takes on capital markets

May 12, 2023 | 2 min read

The precarious debt ceiling stalemate in Washington, D.C. has increasingly drawn investor’s attention. To date, U.S. lawmakers have failed to agree to increase the debt limit, which has already begun distorting some markets. Since both sides know what is at stake, default is improbable. However, every day closer to the Treasury's June 1 deadline without a resolution will likely elevate volatility in markets, trim demand for U.S. risk assets, and even expedite recession.

United States federal debt and statutory debt limit
$U.S. trillion, 1990–present

United States federal debt and statutory debt limit, 1990 to Present

Source: Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury, Bloomberg, Principal Asset Management. Data as of May 11, 2023.

U.S. Congressional lawmakers need to come to an agreement to either suspend or raise the debt ceiling. Failure to do so could result in the U.S. government defaulting on its debt (something it hangs its hat on never having allowed to happen).

Since January 2023, the U.S. Treasury has been enacting “extraordinary measures” to navigate the rapidly closing gap between the U.S. debt level and the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling—measures the Treasury has indicated will be exhausted by June 1. Significant party disagreement around the conditions tied to raising the debt ceiling has left Congress at a stalemate, amplifying investor tension as the deadline approaches.

While an outright default that would wreak havoc on global financial markets and increase borrowing costs for businesses and consumers is unthinkable, a U.S. debt rating downgrade, similar to 2011, cannot be dismissed. A government shutdown, of which there have been four since 1995, is even more conceivable. Regardless, even the uncertainty from the debt ceiling stalemate could trigger a sell-off in U.S. risk assets and potentially expedite recession.

This isn’t the first time the federal debt limit has been under the microscope, and optimism for resolution appears intact for now. However, investors should take note of the rising likelihood of near-term market volatility from this chronic procedural deficiency and dangerous legislative brinkmanship.

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