With the fruitful tandem of low central bank policy rates and muted inflation no longer carrying asset prices higher, as they did in the decade following the Global Financial Crisis, investors need to thoughtfully reconsider their portfolio construction process, and reallocate their positioning to both take advantage of market inefficiencies and minimize exposure to macro-driven threats.

Asset class performance and Federal Reserve balance sheet size
2008–present

Time series chart showing asset class performance and Federal Reserve balance sheet size from 2008-2023

Source: S&P Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Principal Asset Management. Data as of February 23, 2023.

Unlike the golden era of the past decade where low inflation and low interest rates were suppressing volatility and lifting asset prices, it’s now higher inflation and higher interest rates that will likely be dictating market dynamics in the decade ahead. Investors will need to consider key market risks that will be crucial to portfolio construction in what is likely a new investment era:

  • Decrease equity risk: It’s becoming increasingly clear to the market that the Federal Reserve is not yet finished with rate hikes. Relentless monetary tightening will eventually weigh on both the economy and earnings—a headwind that will, inevitably, renew and extend the equity market drawdown.
  • Increase interest rate risk: After a particularly tough 2022 and the latest global bond sell-off, U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds now yield more than twice the estimated dividend yield of the S&P 500 Index. This presents investors with the opportunity to lock-in income with a less volatile asset.
  • Increase alternative beta: Alternatives have strong defensive characteristics which are important in today’s macro environment. In addition, they offer diversification benefits against traditional equity and fixed income.

The era of expanding central bank balance sheets and ultra-easy monetary policy has come to an end, leaving an almost unrecognizable global investment landscape. Expectations for returns need to be lowered, expectations for volatility need to be raised and, above all, additional investment discipline will be required.

In addition to market risks, investors should consider reallocating to address key systematic and implementation risks. Read more in our latest market bulletin, A new investment era?

Disclosure

Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and should not be relied upon to make an investment decision.

The information presented has been derived from sources believed to be accurate; however, we do not independently verify or guarantee its accuracy or validity. Any reference to a specific investment or security does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold such investment or security, and does not take account of any investor’s investment objectives or financial situation and should not be construed as specific investment advice, a recommendation, or be relied on in any way as a guarantee, promise, forecast or prediction of future events regarding an investment or the markets in general. The opinions and predictions expressed are subject to change without prior notice.

Principal Funds, Inc. is distributed by Principal Funds Distributor, Inc.

Principal Asset Management leads global asset management at Principal.®

For Public Distribution in the U.S. For Institutional, Professional, Qualified and/or Wholesale Investor Use only in other permitted jurisdictions as defined by local laws and regulations.

© 2023, Principal Financial Services, Inc. Principal Asset ManagementSM is a trade name of Principal Global Investors, LLC. Principal®, Principal Financial Group®, Principal Asset Management, and Principal and the logomark design are registered trademarks and service marks of Principal Financial Services, Inc., a Principal Financial Group company, in various countries around the world and may be used only with the permission of Principal Financial Services, Inc.

2755028