Discipline in an age of disruption
Innovation, volatility, and structural change define the road ahead. Our global investment leaders share where they see risk, and opportunity, in a complex 2026.
Macro
Seema Shah on the macro landscape
Seema Shah
Chief Global Strategist
- Watch the 2026 Perspectives webcast replay (coming soon!)
Key takeaways
- The U.S. economy remains resilient, powered by strong balance sheets and AI-led investment.
- The “One Big Beautiful Bill” offers near-term fiscal stimulus, though its lasting effects remain uncertain.
- The Fed is likely to pursue only a modest easing cycle, navigating structural inflationary forces.
- AI infrastructure spending accounted for nearly half of GDP growth in early 2025, underscoring its macro impact.
- Structural risks, like K-shaped consumption and constrained labor supply, add fragility to the outlook.
- Globally, China is leaning into tech-driven growth, while Europe benefits from fiscal easing and low tech exposure.
Equities
George Maris on the equities landscape
George Maris, CFA
CIO and Global Head of Equities
- Watch the 2026 Perspectives webcast replay (coming soon!)
Key takeaways
- AI-driven enthusiasm has fueled equity market gains, but valuations in many areas appear stretched.
- Market volatility remains elevated due to retail trading, options activity, and ETF flows, demanding investor discipline.
- Global opportunities exist, particularly in Japan and select emerging markets, but require careful, region-specific evaluation.
- In 2026, the narrative will shift from AI potential to execution, favoring firms with real productivity gains.
- A fundamentals-first approach, focused on free cash flow and valuation, will be critical amid liquidity-driven distortions.
- Sector standouts include U.S. banks, biotechnology, copper, and consumer names poised to benefit from fiscal support.
Fixed Income
Michael Goosay on fixed income market expectations
Michael Goosay
Chief Investment Officer, Fixed Income
- Watch the 2026 Perspectives webcast replay (coming soon!)
Key takeaways
- A resilient U.S. economy and gradual Fed easing set a cautiously constructive backdrop for fixed income in 2026.
- A steepening yield curve may offer total return potential, favoring flexible, moderately long duration positioning.
- Investment-grade credit is supported by solid fundamentals, but tighter spreads and rising supply require selectivity.
- Inflation is expected to stay above target, but the Fed will likely tolerate moderate overshoots while lowering rates.
- High yield remains compelling, though continued heavy issuance may test market capacity.
- Opportunities in emerging markets and municipal bonds could reward active, regionally nuanced strategies.
Multi-Asset
Todd Jablonski on multi-asset market opportunities
Todd Jablonski, CFA
Chief Investment Officer, Multi-asset
- Watch the 2026 Perspectives webcast replay (coming soon!)
Key takeaways
- Investor sentiment is cautious heading into 2026, but the U.S. economy shows resilience in corporate earnings and high-end consumer demand.
- We maintain a “cautiously risk-on” stance, overweighting equities, credit, and other anti-fragile assets.
- Even modest Fed easing may offer outsized market support, particularly as many investors overprice rate cut expectations.
- Valuations across asset classes are elevated, with risk premia at historic lows, adding fragility to the outlook.
- Fiscal and monetary policy are simultaneously stimulative, an unusual dynamic outside of recession that supports risk assets.
- Active, tactical allocation will be essential as macro forces dominate idiosyncratic risks in 2026.
Private Markets
Todd Everett on private market opportunities
Todd Everett
Global Head of Private Markets
- Watch the 2026 Perspectives webcast replay (coming soon!)
Key takeaways
- Declining leverage costs and Fed easing are improving conditions for private real estate and private credit.
- Real estate fundamentals are stabilizing, with standout opportunities in data centers and residential sectors.
- Asset-backed finance is evolving rapidly, offering opportunity, but requiring disciplined underwriting.
- AI-driven infrastructure demand is accelerating, particularly in data centers and energy transmission.
- Private credit continues to gain market share from banks, with attractive yields in the lower middle market.
- Structural tailwinds position private markets for long-term growth, diversification, and income potential.
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Risk considerations
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past Performance does not guarantee future return. All financial investments involve an element of risk. Therefore, the value of the investment and the income from it will vary and the initial investment amount cannot be guaranteed. Asset allocation and diversification do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Equity markets are subject to many factors, including economic conditions, government regulations, market sentiment, local and international political events, and environmental and technological issues that may impact return and volatility. Fixed-income investment options are subject to interest rate risk, and their value will decline as interest rates rise. Real estate investment options are subject to risks associated with credit, liquidity, interest rate fluctuation, adverse general and local economic conditions, and decreases in real estate values and occupancy rates. Private market investments, unlike publicly traded stocks, involve various risks due to illiquidity, lack of transparency, and higher minimum investment requirements. These risks include liquidity risk, market risk, capital risk, and regulatory risk. Additionally, private market investments often involve higher fees and expenses and may have longer investment horizons. Investments in private debt, including leveraged loans, middle market loans, and mezzanine debt, are subject to various risk factors, including credit risk, liquidity risk and interest rate risk. Private credit involves an investment in non-publicly traded securities which are subject to illiquidity risk. Portfolios that invest in private credit may be leveraged and may engage in speculative investment practices that increase the risk of investment loss. Infrastructure investments are long-dated, illiquid investments that are subject to operational and regulatory risks.
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