Home Insights Real estate Modern warehouses driving the next phase of industrial growth
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Despite elevated vacancy rates, the industrial sector remains fundamentally healthy, particularly in modern warehouse facilities. The current softness reflects a cyclical mismatch between supply and leasing velocity, rather than structural weakness. With the construction pipeline contracting and demand for modern logistics assets holding firm, vacancy rates are likely to normalize sooner than expected. As new supply bottoms out by 2026–27, conditions appear favorable for the next development cycle to emerge.

Warehouse net absorption and vacancy by facility age cohort

By facility age, 2020–present

Chart showing warehouse net absorption and vacancy by facility age from 2020 to present

Source: CBRE EA Peer Select, Principal Real Estate. Data as of Q2 2025.

The industrial sector has recently faced headwinds from excess development in select markets and weaker demand tied to policy uncertainty, most notably newly implemented tariffs. These pressures have pushed vacancy rates higher, as new projects came online just as corporate tenants delayed long-term leasing commitments. While this clouds the near-term outlook, it more likely represents temporary cyclical dislocation rather than a sign of structural weakness.

Even so, modern warehouses have remained resilient. Recently built facilities continue to attract strong demand, keeping the sector among the most favored by institutional investors. From 2020 to 2024, warehouses constructed since 2010 averaged 177 million square feet of annual net absorption, well above the long-term average of 103 million. Year-to-date in 2025, this cohort has already absorbed 50 million square feet. Although the current vacancy rate of 15.5% appears elevated, much of it reflects properties still in lease-up rather than stabilized assets underperforming.

Looking ahead, the construction pipeline is expected to keep contracting while demand for modern logistics facilities holds steady. Strong lease-up activity, even in today’s environment, suggests that vacancy will improve more quickly than headlines imply, setting the stage for a more durable recovery. By 2026–27, when new supply is set to reach its lowest point since the Global Financial Crisis, conditions will likely warrant the start of a new development cycle, positioning the sector for its next phase of growth.

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