Real Capital Analytics’ newest data shows U.S. commercial real estate transaction volumes increased in 2Q26, with headline volumes rising +14% YoY to $136.6bn. This represents the ninth consecutive quarter of rising YoY transaction volumes and may help to alleviate concerns of a slowdown given an uncertain macro backdrop.
Transaction volumes in June rose +15% year-over-year, while May volumes were revised meaningfully higher to +30% compared to +15% previously. April 2026 volumes were also revised higher for the second month in a row, narrowing that month’s YoY decline to -3% from -14% (and from -33% upon original release).
At the sector level, office was the only property type to decline YoY in 2Q26 (-9%). Data centers jumped (+1,806%) to a volume of $7.7bn, though overall volumes were still up +9% during the quarter excluding data centers. Elsewhere, Senior housing (+51%), Industrial (+27%), Hotel (+27%), retail (+13%), and apartment (+1%) were all positive.
Liquidity continued to be driven primarily by portfolio and entity-level transactions. However, individual asset sales also finished the quarter in positive territory, rising 4% YoY after declining in both April and May. While investors appear increasingly selective in their deployment decisions, and rightfully so given the return dispersion we’ve previously noted, the return to positive growth in individual transactions suggests conviction remains intact.
Net-net, transaction volumes stand at +23% higher YoY in 1H26 compared to 1H25. Looking ahead, however, comparisons become more demanding in the second half of 2026. Transaction volumes accelerated notably throughout 2H25, creating a higher hurdle for continued YoY growth in coming quarters. As a result, quarterly growth rates may become more volatile even if underlying activity levels remain constructive.
Bottom line
The latest transaction volume data strengthen the case that the U.S. private real estate market is moving further into recovery. Liquidity is still being supported heavily by portfolio transactions, and broader improvement in individual asset sales would provide stronger confirmation. But the direction of travel is clear: activity is improving, revisions are becoming more supportive, and the market looks to be building momentum rather than losing it.
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of Principal. Past Performance does not guarantee future return. Potential investors should be aware of the risks inherent to owning and investing in real estate, including value fluctuations, capital market pricing volatility, liquidity risks, leverage, credit risk, occupancy risk and legal risk. All these risks can lead to a decline in the value of the real estate, a decline in the income produced by the real estate and declines in the value or total loss in value of securities derived from investments in real estate. Commercial real estate (CRE) investments carry several inherent risks, including those related to the economy, interest rates, and tenant behavior. These risks can impact property values, rental income, and overall investment returns.
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